Statistics

This page is a first attempt to contribute to an opening study of Bao. The page will be improved as soon as possible!

The corpus of data is still relatively small (Half a loaf is better than none!), but hopely it will grow and the page will be updated every year.

 

1994 Masters Tournament (Mashindano ya Mabingwa)

The table shows the results of 86 games (abbreviation: Z) played by Tanzanian masters in the 1994 Masters Tournament (Mashindano ya Mabingwa) organised in Zanzibar by de Voogt* together with local players.

The games were 91, but the transcription found in de Voogt's book (pag. 136-157) is not always correct or the players made not recognised illegal movea. It was possible to understand the mistakes and to correct them, but 5 five games remained indecipherable.

 

K.I.B.A. website

There are added to that provisional table the results of 3463 games played on website. Only games with more than 7 moves were included in the statistics.

 

South's first move A6<* A7<* A6>* A7>*
Number of games 1248 (36%) 671 (19%) 962 (28%) 582 (17%)
South's winning chance 47% 48% 72% 50%%
Number of games (Z) 47 (55%) 32 (37%) 3 (3,4%) 4 (5%)
South's winning chance (Z) 22% 37% 0% 1%
North's answer move a5< a5> a6< a6> a5< a5> a6>* a6<* a7>* a7<* a6>* a6<* a7>* a7<*
Number of games 342 (50%) 342 (50%) 14 (%) 9 (%) 253  418  462 165 275 60 311 55 177 39
South's winning chance 51% 53% 87% 52% 49% 50% 46% 39% 40% 48% 55% 62% 34% 54%
Number of games (Z) 32 (37%) 15 (17%)      1 ( 3%) 31 (97%)  2 ( 67%)  1 ( 33%)      4 ( 100%)      
South's winning chance (Z) 66% 46%     1% 12%  0%  0%      25%      

 

Statistikoj

 

Comments

  • The opening of 6<* is the most popular first move with a winning chance of about 53%, which becomes about 51% if the opponent replies a5< or it remains about 53% if the opponent replies a5>
  • The opening of 6>* is the weakest opening with a winning chance of about 43%
  • However all openings have a winning chance very close to 50%

 

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* de Voogt, A.J. Limits of the mind, towards a characterisation of bao matership, Leiden: Thesis Rijeksunniversiteit Leiden, 1995